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Why did the Mayfield Ranch median fall while the price per square foot rose?

In Mayfield Ranch in Round Rock, the median sale price was $532,500 across 46 closings in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026, down from $561,000 across 60 closings in the twelve months ending September 20, 2025. Over those same two periods the median living area of what sold fell from 2,805 square feet to 2,550 square feet while the price per square foot rose from $206 to $212, so the lower median reflects smaller houses selling and not a lower price on the same house.

Two other measures belong next to that. Median cumulative days on the market to contract went from 52.5 in the twelve months ending September 20, 2025 to 48.0 in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026, and the median share of original asking collected at close went from 94.7% to 97.2% across those same two periods. All 46 of the most recent twelve-month closings were resale, none were new build, and none of the 15 homes active on September 23, 2026 is a builder listing.

Quick answer

Mayfield Ranch recorded 46 closings at a median $532,500 and $212 per square foot in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026, against 60 closings at a median $561,000 and $206 per square foot in the twelve months ending September 20, 2025. Fifteen homes were active as of September 23, 2026 at a median asking price of $515,000, and 13 of those 15 were asking less than their original asking price. Every price band in the subdivision holds fewer than 10 closings, so each band is a thin sample and one comparable sale carries unusual weight.

What we analyzed

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What did homes in Mayfield Ranch actually sell for over the past year?

Forty-six homes closed in Mayfield Ranch in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026 at a median sale price of $532,500. Half of those closings reached contract within 48.0 days to contract, and the group collected a median 97.2% of original asking. The median closed home measured 2,550 square feet, was built in 2017, and worked out to $212 per square foot.

The most recent stretch of that year has its own numbers. In the 90 days ending September 20, 2026 there were 15 closings at a median sale price of $574,000, a median 46.0 days to contract, 96.6% of original asking and a median year built of 2019. Median living area was 2,547 square feet in the 90 days ending September 20, 2026 against 2,550 square feet in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026, while the price per square foot was $221 against $212 across those same two periods.

For scale, Round Rock town-wide recorded 1,853 closings at a median sale price of $399,999 in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026. A Mayfield Ranch seller is not pricing against that town number. The subdivision’s own $532,500 median over the same twelve months, and the $212 per square foot behind it, are the figures that describe this record.

Mayfield Ranch closings by price band, twelve months ending September 20, 2026 46 closings spread across the price bands below, with the current active count and the published band median beside each $350,000-$399,999 1 closing, a thin sample, with 0 active listings now and no band median published. $400,000-$449,999 8 closings, a thin sample, with 2 active listings now and a band median of $430,000. $450,000-$499,999 8 closings, a thin sample, with 4 active listings now and a band median of $476,250. $500,000-$549,999 8 closings, a thin sample, with 3 active listings now and a band median of $526,500. $550,000-$599,999 7 closings, a thin sample, with 1 active listing now and a band median of $574,000. $600,000-$649,999 3 closings, a thin sample, with 3 active listings now and no band median published. $650,000-$699,999 8 closings, a thin sample, with 1 active listing now and a band median of $676,500. $700,000-$749,999 2 closings, a thin sample, with 1 active listing now and no band median published. $850,000-$899,999 1 closing, a thin sample, with 0 active listings now and no band median published. Every band count is under 10 closings and is a thin sample on its own. Bands with no median printed here publish no band median. Source: MLS subdivision record for Mayfield Ranch, pulled September 23, 2026.
Figure fig1. Bar chart of Mayfield Ranch closings by price band for the twelve months ending September 20, 2026. The $400,000 to $449,999, $450,000 to $499,999, $500,000 to $549,999 and $650,000 to $699,999 bands each recorded 8 closings, the $550,000 to $599,999 band recorded 7, the $600,000 to $649,999 band recorded 3, the $700,000 to $749,999 band recorded 2, and the $350,000 to $399,999 and $850,000 to $899,999 bands recorded 1 each.
Dollars per square foot in Mayfield Ranch across three periods The median sale price was lower in the most recent twelve months than in the twelve months before it, while the per square foot figure was higher Twelve months ending September 20, 2025 60 closings at a median sale price of $561,000 and a median living area of 2,805 square feet. Twelve months ending September 20, 2026 46 closings at a median sale price of $532,500 and a median living area of 2,550 square feet. 90 days ending September 20, 2026 15 closings at a median sale price of $574,000 and a median living area of 2,547 square feet. Each bar is the median dollars per square foot for closings in that period, with the closing count, median sale price and median living area for the same period in the caption. Source: MLS subdivision record for Mayfield Ranch, pulled September 23, 2026.
Figure fig2. Bar chart of median dollars per square foot for Mayfield Ranch closings. The twelve months ending September 20, 2025 recorded $206, the twelve months ending September 20, 2026 recorded $212, and the 90 days ending September 20, 2026 recorded $221.

Why did the median fall while the price per square foot went up?

Because the houses that sold were smaller. Median living area among closings fell from 2,805 square feet in the twelve months ending September 20, 2025 to 2,550 square feet in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026, and across those same two periods the median sale price moved from $561,000 to $532,500 while the price per square foot moved from $206 to $212. A lower median sale price paired with a higher per square foot figure is a statement about what came to market, not a markdown applied to every house in Mayfield Ranch.

Build era carries part of that. Of the 46 closings in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026, 33 were built between 2015 and 2024 and 13 were built between 2000 and 2014. None were built before 2000 and none were built in 2025 or later. The median year built among closings was 2016 in the twelve months ending September 20, 2025 and 2017 in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026, and it was 2019 across the 15 closings in the 90 days ending September 20, 2026.

Volume moved as well: 60 closings in the twelve months ending September 20, 2025 and 46 closings in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026. Fewer closings at a smaller median size is the shape of this record, and it is the reason a homeowner who reads only the headline median can misjudge their own house by a wide margin. If your home is larger than 2,550 square feet, the median that describes Mayfield Ranch was not built on a house like yours.

What does 97.2% of original asking tell me about my list price?

Across the 46 closings in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026, sellers collected a median 97.2% of their original asking price, against a median 94.7% across the 60 closings in the twelve months ending September 20, 2025. Both figures are medians of what a first asking price turned into by the closing table. Neither is a discount a buyer is owed.

Put the 90 days ending September 20, 2026 alongside them and the three figures fall inside a narrow range: 94.7% over the twelve months ending September 20, 2025, 97.2% over the twelve months ending September 20, 2026 and 96.6% over the 90 days ending September 20, 2026. None of the three reaches 100%. On this record, an original asking price set above what the buyer pool would pay was corrected before closing rather than met.

The active list says the same thing earlier in the process. Of the 15 homes active in Mayfield Ranch on September 23, 2026, 13 were asking less than their original asking price. The correction is visible on the way in, not only at the end.

What is my home competing against in Mayfield Ranch right now?

Fifteen homes were active in Mayfield Ranch as of September 23, 2026, and 13 of those 15 were asking less than their original asking price. The median asking price across the 15 was $515,000, and they had been listed a median of 69.0 days so far.

None of the 15 is a builder listing, and the record carries no builder names for this subdivision. That lines up with what closed: all 46 of the closings in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026 were resale and zero were new build. A seller in Mayfield Ranch is not competing inside the subdivision against a model home, a standing inventory home or a builder incentive package. The competition is the other resale houses on the same active list.

Set the asking prices against the closed prices directly. The 15 actives asked a median $515,000 as of September 23, 2026, while closings ran a median $532,500 over the twelve months ending September 20, 2026 and a median $574,000 over the 90 days ending September 20, 2026. Those same actives carried a median 69.0 days listed so far as of September 23, 2026, against a median 48.0 days to contract on closings over the twelve months ending September 20, 2026. A new Mayfield Ranch listing joins a group that is already asking under both closed medians.

Which price band is my home in, and how thin is that band?

Mayfield Ranch spread its 46 twelve-month closings across nine price bands, and every one of those bands holds fewer than 10 closings, which makes each band a thin sample on its own. The bands run from $350,000 to $399,999 at the low end up to $850,000 to $899,999 at the high end.

Table 1. Mayfield Ranch closings by price band for the twelve months ending September 20, 2026, with active listings as of September 23, 2026. Every band count is under 10 closings and is a thin sample. Source: MLS subdivision record for Mayfield Ranch, pulled September 23, 2026.
Price bandClosings, twelve monthsActive nowBand median
$350,000-$399,99910No median published
$400,000-$449,99982$430,000
$450,000-$499,99984$476,250
$500,000-$549,99983$526,500
$550,000-$599,99971$574,000
$600,000-$649,99933No median published
$650,000-$699,99981$676,500
$700,000-$749,99921No median published
$850,000-$899,99910No median published

Two rows are worth reading closely. The $650,000 to $699,999 band recorded 8 closings, a thin sample under 10 closings, at a band median of $676,500, and holds only 1 active listing now. The $450,000 to $499,999 band recorded 8 closings, thin on the same test, at a band median of $476,250, and holds 4 actives, the largest active count of any band here. A seller in the first is measured against a short list of recent sales, a seller in the second against the largest group of live competitors in Mayfield Ranch.

Mayfield Ranch showed 15 active listings and 3.9 months of inventory on the twelve-month basis, which carries the label seller’s market. That label is for the subdivision overall on that twelve-month basis and nothing narrower, it is not a label for any single house, and a price point changes which market a home is in, which is exactly why the band rows above tell a seller more than the label does. Round Rock town-wide showed 647 actives and 4.2 months over the twelve months ending September 20, 2026.

What happens to the Mayfield Ranch listings that never sell?

Sixteen listings in Mayfield Ranch ended without a sale in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026, a non-sale share of 25.8%, meaning listings that expired or were withdrawn by their off-market date, as a share of every listing that reached an outcome either way. Round Rock town-wide recorded 663 listings that ended over the same period at 26.4% on that same measure. Mayfield Ranch and the town it sits inside are close to one another there.

That count is not a verdict on any one house. It is a reminder that the 46 closings in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026 are the surviving half of a larger pool of attempts, and that a Mayfield Ranch listing can reach an off-market date with no closing behind it. What separates the two outcomes in a subdivision with no builder competition inside it is the original asking price, the condition of the house, and which thin band the house lands in.

Does a Round Rock address here come with Round Rock schools?

Not according to the listing record. All 46 of the closings in the twelve months ending September 20, 2026 carry Round Rock in the MLS city field, while the school fields on those same listings name Wolf Ranch Elementary and Georgetown Independent School District. That is a geography note copied from the listing fields and nothing more. Attendance is set by the district and by the specific address, so a seller or buyer should confirm the assignment for their own lot with the district directly.

The practical effect for a seller is where the listing surfaces. A buyer searching by city sees Round Rock and a buyer filtering by school district sees Georgetown ISD, and in Mayfield Ranch both come off the same record for the same house.

The subdivision name itself is split the same way. Mayfield Ranch appears in the MLS under 18 spellings, among them Highlands at Mayfield Ranch, HIGHLANDS AT MAYFIELD RANCH SEC 10A, Highlands/Mayfield Ranch Sec 3 and Highlands/Mayfield Ranch Sec 9, and all of them are counted here as one subdivision. A search that catches only one of those spellings picks up a fraction of the record, which is one reason two people can look up the same neighborhood and come back with different counts, different medians and different conclusions about the same house.

Worried the price is the reason your Mayfield Ranch home has not sold?

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No obligation. The report for Mayfield Ranch arrives within a minute; the pricing analysis comes after we walk the home. Nothing here promises a price, a timeline, or an outcome.

Your situation

If your home is smaller than the 2,550 square foot median of the 46 closings, the $212 per square foot figure from the twelve months ending September 20, 2026 will tell you more than the $532,500 median will, because that median was built on a house of a different size than yours.

If your home is already listed and has been on the market longer than the 69.0 day median of the 15 actives, you are on the far side of the current active set in Mayfield Ranch, and 13 of those 15 have already come off their original asking price.

If your home falls in the $650,000 to $699,999 band, that band recorded 8 closings at a band median of $676,500 and holds 1 active listing now, a thin sample under 10 closings on the closed side, so a single comparable sale carries unusual weight in any pricing conversation you have.

About Watters International Realty in Round Rock

Watters International Realty is a Texas real estate brokerage based in Austin, with Chris Watters as broker of record. This page is written from ACTRIS data pulled through MLS Grid and analyzed by WIR on September 23, 2026.

Chris Watters, Broker, Watters International Realty. Texas Real Estate Commission license #567369. Broker of record for a Texas brokerage based in Austin, serving the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Killeen-Temple-Waco metros.

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Sources: Unlock MLS (ACTRIS) via MLS Grid, WIR analysis, pulled September 23, 2026 [q_10ac66ec3d, q_6e64a0173a, q_7a80d88656, q_8871445f6a]. Subdivision is the MLS subdivision name, normalized across its recorded spellings.

Last updated September 23, 2026. Sales data covers the 90 days ending September 20, 2026 and the twelve months ending September 20, 2026 (Unlock MLS via MLS Grid); listing inventory as of September 23, 2026.

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