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78640 housing market report: where the Kyle market turns above $450,000

By Chris Watters, Broker and CEO, Watters International Realty

Kyle closed 369 homes at a median $307,000 in the 90 days ending September 20, 2026 and held 598 for sale on September 21, 2026, which is 4.9 months of inventory against 5.6 for the Austin metro. Under WIR’s rule that is a seller’s-market label for the town taken whole, and the price a house carries decides which of these markets it really sits in. The 78640 ZIP reaches past the city limits and counted 414 sales and 654 listings on the same two dates.

Quick answer

Kyle measured 4.9 months of inventory in the 90 days ending September 20, 2026 where the Austin metro measured 5.6, a seller’s-market label for the town taken whole under WIR’s rule against a balanced one for the metro, and a price point changes which market a home is in. Builders hold 278 of the 598 listings, and 371 of the 598 (62.0%) already ask less than they first did. Below are the town, the ZIP, four periods, three peer towns and every price band.

What we analyzed

Sources: Unlock MLS (ACTRIS) via MLS Grid, WIR analysis, pulled September 21, 2026.

Already know your likely price? Jump to whether this applies to your home, or run your address now.

The wider Kyle story is on the Kyle, TX real estate market report.

Last updated September 21, 2026. Sales data covers the 90 days ending September 20, 2026 and the twelve months ending the same day (Unlock MLS via MLS Grid); listing inventory as of September 21, 2026.

How do Kyle’s numbers compare with the Austin metro?

Two counts make the headline. 369 Kyle homes sold in the 90 days ending September 20, 2026, 598 were listed on September 21, 2026, and dividing the second by a month of the first gives 4.9 months of inventory where the metro gives 5.6. The WIR labels printed just below cover Kyle as a whole and the metro as a whole, and the price a house carries decides which of those markets it really sits in. The store behind every table here is refreshed monthly.

Table 1. Kyle against the Austin metro, Residential. Sales: 90 days ending September 20, 2026. Inventory: as of September 21, 2026. Non-sale share counts listings that ended in those 90 days without a sale, as a share of every listing that reached an outcome either way. Source: Unlock MLS (ACTRIS) via MLS Grid, WIR analysis.

MeasureKyleAustin metroWho owns the interpretation
Homes sold3698,953Should you sell your Kyle home now, or wait?
Median sale price$307,000$412,250What is your Kyle home worth next to a brand-new house?
Median days on market (cumulative)57 days50 daysWhy aren’t homes selling in Kyle?
What homes sold for relative to their initial asking price94.7%94.8%What is your Kyle home worth next to a brand-new house?
Price per square foot (median)$165What is your Kyle home worth next to a brand-new house?
Homes for sale59816,672What is your Kyle home competing against right now?
Months of inventory4.95.6Should you sell your Kyle home now, or wait?
WIR labelseller’s marketbalancedShould you sell your Kyle home now, or wait?
Listings that ended without a sale129Why aren’t homes selling in Kyle?
Non-sale share25.9%36.4%Why aren’t homes selling in Kyle?
Active under contract32Should you sell your Kyle home now, or wait?
Pending123Should you sell your Kyle home now, or wait?
New listings in the period441What is your Kyle home competing against right now?
Homes for sale priced below their original asking price371 (62.0%)57.3%What is your Kyle home competing against right now?

Table 1 names the page that argues each row. Kyle’s median of 57 days to contract runs above the metro’s 50, and the 369 sales split hard: 107 found a contract inside a month, 129 needed more than three. Why aren’t homes selling in Kyle? takes that split apart.

Buyers paid 94.7% of original asking, close to the metro’s 94.8%, and 57 sales (15.4%) landed at or above the first asking price, which is where what is your Kyle home worth next to a brand-new house? starts. The pipeline on September 21, 2026 held 32 active under contract and 123 pending, contracts signed and not yet closed, which is what should you sell your Kyle home now, or wait? rests on, with 441 new listings arriving over the period.

The last row disagrees with the first ones. 371 of the 598 listings (62.0%) sit below their original asking price, against 57.3% metro-wide, at an active median asking of $329,550 and a median 64 days listed so far. Who set those asking prices is taken up on what is your Kyle home competing against right now?

Months of inventory in Kyle by ZIP code against the Austin metro Homes for sale as of September 21, 2026 divided by the monthly sales pace of the 90 days ending September 20, 2026. Lower is tighter. 5.5 seller's 6.5 buyer's Kyle (city) 4.9 78640 4.7 Austin metro 5.6 Source: Unlock MLS (ACTRIS) via MLS Grid, WIR analysis, pulled September 21, 2026.
Figure 1. Kyle at 4.9 months against 5.6 for the Austin metro. Months of inventory, 90 days ending September 20, 2026: Kyle (city) 4.9; 78640 4.7; Austin metro 5.6. Under 5.5 is a seller’s market by WIR’s rule, over 6.5 a buyer’s; the label is for each geography overall. Source: Unlock MLS (ACTRIS) via MLS Grid, WIR analysis, pulled September 21, 2026.

What do the numbers say for 78640 itself?

78640 is drawn wider than the city, so its counts run higher: 414 sales and 654 listings against the city’s 369 and 598. Its 4.7 months carries a seller’s-market label for the ZIP taken whole, which settles nothing about the price band a particular house sits in.

Table 2. Kyle by ZIP code, whole ZIP regardless of city, 90 days ending September 20, 2026, inventory as of September 21, 2026. A label is for that ZIP overall; a price point changes which market a home is in. Source: Unlock MLS (ACTRIS) via MLS Grid, WIR analysis.

ZIPSoldMedian sale priceMedian DOMOf original askingFor saleMonthsLabelFor sale below original askingBuilder listings
78640414$294,79556 days94.3%6544.7seller’s market406 (62.1%)328 of 654

The ZIP is where the building shows. Builders hold 328 of the 654 listings (50.2%), new builds were 264 of the 414 sales (63.8%), and 258 of those sales came out of 2025 or later against 9 that predate 2000.

Across the twelve months ending September 20, 2026 the ZIP recorded 1,595 sales at a median $305,000 on 4.9 months, the same seller’s-market label for the ZIP overall and no answer for any one band inside it. Waterstone contributed 123 of those sales at a median $289,990 and 6 Creeks 87 at $489,990, both on a median build year of 2025. The builders behind them are on the competition page, and what all of it means for a seller is on the Kyle, TX real estate market report.

Is this year different from last year in Kyle?

Kyle’s twelve months ending September 20, 2026 recorded 1,394 sales at a median $318,690; the twelve months before them recorded 1,569 at $332,040, down 11.2% on the count and down 4.0% on the median.

Table 3. Kyle sales by period; each row is its own period and the rows are not a trend line. Source: Unlock MLS (ACTRIS) via MLS Grid, WIR analysis.

PeriodSoldMedian sale priceMedian DOMOf original askingPrice per square foot
90 days ending September 20, 2026369$307,00057 days94.7%$165
Same 90 days, 2025 (June 23, 2025 to September 20, 2025)389$324,00055 days93.4%$177
Twelve months ending September 20, 20261,394$318,69066 days93.5%$166
Prior twelve months (September 21, 2024 to September 20, 2025)1,569$332,04066 days93.6%$179

Per square foot the gap is wider, $166 against $179, down 7.1%. On the shorter basis the median was $307,000 against $324,000 in the same 90 days of 2025, down 5.2%, on 369 sales against 389, down 5.1%. Every row of Table 3 is its own measurement on its own dates, and a seller anchored to a 2025 number should read what is your Kyle home worth next to a brand-new house?

How does Kyle sit next to Buda, San Marcos and Lockhart?

Buda measured 4.9 months over these 90 days, Kyle 4.9, Lockhart 5.9 and San Marcos 7.2. Kyle and Buda read seller’s market, Lockhart balanced and San Marcos buyer’s market; each of those labels covers a whole town, and what a house is priced at moves it between them.

Table 4. Nearby towns, each by its own MLS city field, 90 days ending September 20, 2026. Source: Unlock MLS (ACTRIS) via MLS Grid, WIR analysis.

TownSoldMedian sale priceMedian DOMOf original askingFor saleMonthsLabel
Kyle369$307,00057 days94.7%5984.9seller’s market
Buda262$350,00054 days95.3%4284.9seller’s market
San Marcos176$296,00067 days92.8%4257.2buyer’s market
Lockhart69$310,00053 days92.9%1365.9balanced

Price discipline separates the four further than supply does: 95.3% of original asking in Buda, 94.7% in Kyle, 92.9% in Lockhart and 92.8% in San Marcos.

Does the town label hold at the price your home would list for?

It survives in the bands doing the volume and breaks above $450,000. A band’s label covers that band and nothing else, the price a house lists at decides which band it argues in, and a band with fewer than ten sales over the 90 days is thin, so its row below is read on the twelve months ending September 20, 2026.

Table 5. Kyle by price band, Residential; closings by sale price (90 days ending September 20, 2026), actives by asking price (as of September 21, 2026). WIR label rule: under 5.5 months seller’s, 5.5 to 6.5 balanced, over 6.5 buyer’s. A band’s label is for that band only, and a price point changes which market a home is in; the 90-day label is published only where the band had at least 10 closings, the twelve-month basis is used and named where it had fewer, and no median is published under 5. Source: Unlock MLS (ACTRIS) via MLS Grid, WIR analysis.

BandSoldMedian sale priceFor saleBuilder listings (same MLS flag as the builder table)For sale below original askingMonthsLabel
under $200,00011$192,999177154.6seller’s market
$200,000 to $249,99971$230,0008227573.5seller’s market
$250,000 to $299,99989$275,00011843694.0seller’s market
$300,000 to $349,99975$324,99014776895.9balanced
$350,000 to $399,99949$367,9008041394.9seller’s market
$400,000 to $449,99934$429,9503511213.1seller’s market
$450,000 to $499,99915$470,0003321256.6buyer’s market
$500,000 to $549,9997$535,0002111138.7 (twelve-month basis)buyer’s market (twelve-month basis)
$550,000 to $599,9995$570,0001812136.2 (twelve-month basis)balanced (twelve-month basis)
$600,000 to $649,9997$620,99012677.6 (twelve-month basis)buyer’s market (twelve-month basis)
$650,000 and above6$687,50035232317.5 (twelve-month basis)buyer’s market (twelve-month basis)

$250,000 to $299,999 recorded 89 sales at 4.0 months, $200,000 to $249,999 recorded 71 at 3.5, seller’s market in those two bands alone. $300,000 to $349,999 holds 147 listings, more than any other band, on 75 sales at 5.9 months, which reads balanced there, while $450,000 to $499,999 recorded 15 sales at 6.6 months for a buyer’s-market label in that band; the price a house carries decides which of them applies to it.

The four bands above $500,000 are thin. Table 5 reads them on the twelve months ending September 20, 2026, at 8.7, 6.2, 7.6 and 17.5 months going up the ladder, which on that basis is balanced from $550,000 to $599,999 and buyer’s market in the other three, each label belonging to its own band and to no other price.

Builders account for 278 of the 598 listings (46.5%) under 22 names, asking a median $340,494 where 320 resale listings ask $315,000, and 175 builder listings have come off their original price. Names and communities are on what is your Kyle home competing against right now?

These numbers describe your home if / they do not if

Whether the town row fits your address comes down to the price it would list at and whether a builder still has stock a few streets away. If that is you, the fastest way to know is to run your address.

What to do with either answer is on should you sell your Kyle home now, or wait?

Your situation

Each number on this page stands for a crowd. Plum Creek North, median build year 2026, ran a $300,990 median over the twelve months ending September 20, 2026 while 6 Creeks ran $489,990, and one figure of 4.9 months covers both. Your house is one of 598 listings, in one band, with 278 builder listings somewhere behind it. How many of the 598 does a buyer at your price tour before yours?

What do these numbers mean for your home?

Every number here stands for a crowd, and the one that decides your sale is the one for your band and your street. Give us your address and we run the process behind this page against your actual property. You get:

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No obligation. The report for your part of Kyle arrives within a minute; the pricing analysis comes after we walk the home. Nothing here promises a price, a timeline, or an outcome. 13 homes sold by Watters International Realty in Kyle since August 2024 (Unlock MLS).

Chris Watters on months of supply

Chris’s position, WIR positions library, approved September 9, 2026.

Months of supply is the number I watch. It means: if no more homes came on the market, how long would it take to sell everything listed at the pace homes are selling now. The right company sells a lot faster than the average listing.

Kyle measured 4.9 months for the 90 days ending September 20, 2026 against the metro’s 5.6, and 5.1 months on the twelve months ending September 20, 2026. Each of those figures belongs to a whole town at once, and a price point changes which market a home is in.

About Watters International Realty in Kyle

Watters International Realty is a Texas real estate brokerage based in Austin, with Chris Watters as broker of record. This page is written from ACTRIS data pulled through MLS Grid and analyzed by WIR on September 21, 2026. 13 homes sold by Watters International Realty in Kyle since August 2024 (Unlock MLS).

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Chris Watters, Broker, Watters International Realty. Texas Real Estate Commission license #567369. Broker of record for a Texas brokerage based in Austin, serving the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Killeen-Temple-Waco metros.