Yes, through supply, not yet through price. In the 90 days ending September 8, 2026, ZIP 78653 carried 7.5 months of housing inventory against 5.4 for the Austin metro. Of the 367 homes for sale in the ZIP on September 9, 147 were builder listings: new, under construction, or to be built. Our position is that once a market runs past five to six months of supply, resale homes take the hit, and Manor is past that line.
Yes, new construction is hurting Manor resale values through supply, not yet through price: in the 90 days ending September 8, 2026, ZIP 78653 held 7.5 months of inventory against 5.4 for the Austin metro, 40% of the homes for sale were builder listings, and the median sale price moved from $339,990 in the same 90 days a year earlier to $330,000. The pressure shows up as competition at your price point, heaviest between $350,000 and $500,000 where new builds are 58% to 78% of what is for sale. What changes it for you is your price point and whether a finished spec is standing at your number.
Sources: Unlock MLS (ACTRIS) via MLS Grid, WIR analysis, pulled September 9, 2026; WIR New Construction Inventory tracking; Freddie Mac PMMS; NAHB HMI, August 2026.
The wider Manor story is on the Manor, TX real estate market report, and every figure on this page is tabled on the 78653 housing market report.
Last updated September 9, 2026. Sales data covers the 90 days ending September 8, 2026 (Unlock MLS via MLS Grid); listing inventory as of September 9, 2026; builder pricing and incentives read September 8, 2026.
Forty percent. Of the 367 homes listed for sale in 78653 on September 9, 2026, the MLS flags 147 as new construction, under construction, or to be built, under sixteen different builder names. D.R. Horton has 57 of them, in Carillon, Monarch Ranch, Palomino and Trails at Wildhorse. Century Communities has 17 in Evelyn, DRB Homes 14, Milestone 13, and Pulte and Pacesetter 10 each. The builder listings run from $247,900 to $545,331, with a median asking price of $390,470. The full list by builder, community and price is on what is your Manor home competing against right now?
Two sources sit behind that count, and they do different jobs. The MLS carries every builder home that is listed, with its price, status and builder name, so it is the count. The WIR New Construction Inventory sheet tracks what the MLS does not carry: a community’s published price range, its spec count, its HOA, and the incentive it advertises. For Pacesetter that means published ranges of $242,900 to $419,900 in Whisper Valley and $329,900 to $411,900 in Village at Manor Commons, at least 15 move-in-ready specs across the two, and an advertised rate as low as 4.99% (terms apply, subject to change) against the Freddie Mac survey rate of 6.71% on September 3, 2026. The sheet’s 15 specs and the MLS’s 10 Pacesetter listings are different counts of different things: the sheet counts finished homes the builder advertises, and the MLS counts homes the builder has listed, which is our read of why the two differ. Whisper Valley, the largest of those communities, has its own page: Whisper Valley real estate market: what sellers should know.
Two more things the MLS shows. Sixty-one of them are priced below what they were first listed at. And the builder listings have a median of 60 cumulative days on the market, against 43 for the resale homes currently for sale, which puts the builders’ own inventory on the market longer than the resale homes beside it.
The competition is uneven by price, and this is the part that decides whether the answer applies to you. Builder inventory is 4% of the homes for sale between $200,000 and $249,999, and 12% between $250,000 and $299,999. It is 34% between $300,000 and $349,999, where the ZIP’s median sale price of $330,000 sits. Then it climbs: 59% between $350,000 and $399,999, 78% between $400,000 and $449,999, and 58% between $450,000 and $499,999. Above $550,000 there is no builder inventory on the MLS at all.
Supply follows the same shape. Months of inventory means this: if no more homes came on the market, how long it would take to sell everything listed at the current pace, and the right company sells faster than the average listing. Using our rule (under 5.5 months is a seller’s market, 5.5 to 6.5 balanced, over 6.5 a buyer’s market), the $200,000 to $249,999 range is a seller’s market at 4.6 months, $300,000 to $349,999 is balanced at 5.7, and $350,000 to $399,999 and $400,000 to $449,999 are buyer’s markets at 8.2 and 9.6. Each of those is the label for that price range across 78653 for the 90 days ending September 8, 2026, and a price point changes which market a homeowner is in, so none of them is the label for any single home. Between $450,000 and $499,999 the 90 days hold too few sales to label, so we use the full twelve months ending September 8: 25 sales, 38 homes for sale, 18.2 months of supply. Above $420,000 taken together, 95 homes sold in those twelve months against 156 in the twelve months before, 92 are for sale, and 48 of those 92 are new builds. The higher-priced and acreage side of Manor has its own page: should you sell acreage or a higher-priced home in Manor now, or wait? The ZIP-level label and what to do with it is on is 78653 a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?
No, and you could not if you tried, because a builder is selling a payment and a homeowner is selling a house. Pacesetter’s advertised rate as low as 4.99% (terms apply, subject to change) sits 1.72 percentage points under the 6.71% Freddie Mac survey rate of September 3, 2026, and a buyer feels that gap as a monthly payment before anything else. In the NAHB’s August 2026 survey, 63% of builders were using sales incentives and 35% had cut prices, by an average of 6%, and in our read Pacesetter’s advertised offer fits that pattern. How a builder pays for that gap is Chris’s read, further down this page. What it means for a resale is that the rate is off the table, and the comparison moves to the things a payment cannot buy: the lot, a finished street, and a price under the builder’s floor for the same square footage.
A little, on the one comparison we can make, and far less than the supply numbers would lead you to guess. The median sale price in 78653 was $330,000 in the 90 days ending September 8, 2026, and $339,990 in the same 90 days a year earlier. The Austin metro moved from $425,000 to $417,750 over the same comparison. Homes that sold in 78653 still fetched 94.6% of their initial asking price. Above $420,000 the story is volume, and that segment is worked through on the acreage and higher-priced page linked above.
What moved a lot is volume and asking prices. Sales in the ZIP were 147 in those 90 days against 162 the year before, and 190 of the 367 homes for sale on September 9 had already cut from their original list price, which is 51.8% of the market. Why homes miss the right number, and what price, promotion and product each have to do with it, is on why aren’t homes selling in 78653?
More exposed if your likely price sits between $350,000 and $500,000, because a finished new home is the majority of what a buyer sees at that number. More exposed if a spec is standing in your community or the next one over with a builder warranty and a bought-down rate. More exposed if your kitchen and baths read as a different decade next to that spec. If that is you, the fastest way to know is to run your address.
Less exposed if your likely price is under $300,000, where new builds are 4% to 12% of the homes for sale and the $200,000 to $249,999 range measured 4.6 months of inventory, a seller’s market on the 90 days ending September 8, 2026; that label is for the range across 78653, and a price point changes which market a homeowner is in, so it is not any single home’s label. Less exposed if you own a lot, a mature street, or a location a builder cannot reproduce, and if your monthly ownership cost sits under the new community’s. And less exposed if your asking price sits under the builder’s floor for your square footage, because at that point the buyer is choosing between a finished house and a better deal. If you do not know your likely price, start with what your Manor home is worth next to a brand-new house, then come back to this section.
The 40% is the ZIP’s number. Yours is a smaller one: at the price your home would list for, how many of the homes a buyer can tour that weekend are brand new, and what does yours offer that the spec does not? That is the question that decides whether new construction is hurting your value, and only your address answers it.
Whether the builders are costing you anything on your own house depends on how many of the homes a buyer can tour at your price are brand new, and what yours offers that the spec does not. Give us your address and we run the process behind this page against your actual property. You get:
No obligation. An analyst runs your address, your part of 78653, and the timeline you name. Estimates are estimates; nothing here promises a price, a timeline, or an outcome. 118 homes sold by Watters International Realty in 78653.
Chris Watters’s position, stated September 9, 2026. WIR does not forecast prices; the figures on this page are one period’s measurements.
Builders will buy down the interest rate by inflating the sales price or taking a net loss on the deal. Builders are also throwing in incentives to pay for a buyer’s closing costs.
In the short term, new construction increases supply. As supply grows, prices can trend down past a certain inflection point. When inventory exceeds five to six months, resale homes get hit hard.
For the 90 days ending September 8, 2026, 78653 measured 7.5 months.
Watters International Realty is a Texas real estate brokerage based in Austin, with Chris Watters as broker of record. This page is written from ACTRIS data pulled through MLS Grid and analyzed by WIR on September 9, 2026, and from the WIR New Construction Inventory sheet. 118 homes sold by Watters International Realty in 78653.
They lower the buyer’s monthly payment on the new house; they do not set a number on yours. The effect on you is competition: at your price, a buyer can choose a finished home with an advertised rate as low as 4.99% (terms apply, subject to change) against the 6.71% Freddie Mac survey rate of September 3, 2026, so your home has to win on something the payment cannot buy. No figure on file measures a change in any single Manor home’s value. What is on file is the ZIP median of $330,000 for the 90 days ending September 8, 2026, against $339,990 in the same 90 days a year earlier.
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No obligation. Estimates are estimates; nothing here promises a price, a timeline, or an outcome.
