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78654 housing market: is the ZIP the same market as Marble Falls?

Quick answer

In the three months ending October 15, 2026, Marble Falls carried 8.0 months of inventory against 6.0 for the Austin metro, and the ZIP code around it carried more. In my read, that much supply asks a seller to price to recent sales in Thunder Rock, Gregg Ranch or any other part of town, and the ZIP code asks for a little more patience than the town does.

What we analyzed

Sources: Unlock MLS, pulled October 16, 2026.

Selling above $1M? Part of this market never goes online

The figures on this page describe the public side of this market, the sales that were listed in the MLS. Above $1M in the Austin area, a large share of sales are never listed there and never appear online.

Those sales trade on a broker-to-broker private network, and I am a participating broker. Only the agents and brokers who do most of the business at this price point use it, and a surprising number of agents do not know it exists because they do not sell in this range. It covers homes, lots, ranches and condos priced over $1M, and much of it is waterfront or in the Austin core, West Austin, Westlake and Rollingwood, where prices run past $1.5M.

Sellers and their brokers use it for privacy: no public photos or floor plans, and no showings to buyers who have not been qualified.

Contact me for off-market private luxury listings you will never see online

Step 1 of 4

26 Marble Falls homeowners have trusted my real estate team to sell their home in the MLS, and that count doesn’t include a single buyer we’ve represented. Everything on this page comes from the same MLS record we used to price those homes.

Already have a rough idea of your price range? Skip down to see whether these numbers fit your home, or plug in your address for a closer look.

What these numbers mean if you are selling is on Why is the Marble Falls housing market slower to reach a contract than the Austin metro's?

Last updated October 16, 2026. Sales data covers the 90 days ending October 15, 2026 and the twelve months ending the same day (Unlock MLS via MLS Grid); listing inventory as of October 16, 2026.

How does Marble Falls compare with the Austin metro?

Marble Falls has a lower typical sale price than the metro, a longer wait to a contract and more supply. Table 1 lines the town up against the metro, one measure per row.

Table 1. Marble Falls compared with the Austin metro. Sales are from the 90 days ending October 15, 2026; homes for sale are as of October 16, 2026. “Failed to sell” means the listing expired or was withdrawn without selling. Source: Unlock MLS.

MeasureMarble FallsAustin metro
Homes sold478,186
Median sale price$344,900$405,000
Median days on market65 days56 days
What homes sold for relative to their initial asking price93.9%94.3%
Price per square foot (median)$180$204
Homes for sale12616,289
Months of supply8.06.0
Buyer’s or seller’s marketbuyer’s marketbalanced
Listings that failed to sell315,425
Share of listings that failed to sell39.7%39.9%
Active under contract71,416
Pending212,034
New listings in the last 90 days7312,212
Homes for sale priced below their original asking price61 (48.4%)58.9%

Homes sold, the pipeline of homes under contract and pending, and months of inventory feed the timing question on Should you sell your Marble Falls home now, or wait for a faster market?

The median sale price, price per square foot and the share of original asking that buyers paid are read next to new builds on What is your Marble Falls home worth next to new builds that sell for less?

Days on market and the listings that failed to sell are explained on Do Marble Falls new builds really sell faster than resales?

Homes for sale, price cuts and new listings are the competition, on Which price ranges in Marble Falls have no builder homes competing with yours? The whole town story is on Why is the Marble Falls housing market slower to reach a contract than the Austin metro’s?

Sale price as a share of original asking in Marble Falls, its ZIP codes and the Austin metro Median home sold, 90 days ending October 15, 2026, as a share of original asking price. Marble Falls (city) 93.9% 78654 92.8% Austin metro 94.3% Source: Unlock MLS, pulled October 16, 2026.
Figure 1. Sale price as a share of original asking price, 90 days ending October 15, 2026: Marble Falls (city) 93.9%; 78654 92.8%; Austin metro 94.3%. The share a home closes at, against its original asking price, decides whether a market reads as buyer’s, balanced or seller’s; a different price point changes which market a home is in. Source: Unlock MLS, pulled October 16, 2026.

Is 78654 any different from the town of Marble Falls?

The ZIP code is slower and looser than the town, with a median 93 days to a contract against 65 and 8.9 months of inventory against 8.0, as the next table shows.

Table 2. Marble Falls by ZIP code, covering the whole ZIP, 90 days ending October 15, 2026. Your price range can put you in a different market than the ZIP as a whole. Source: Unlock MLS.

ZIPSoldMedian sale priceMedian days on marketShare of original asking priceFor saleMonths of supplyMarketHomes that cut their priceNew builds for sale
7865466$400,00093 days92.8%1958.9buyer’s market100 (51.3%)42 of 195

The ZIP code covers every home in 78654 whatever city the listing carries, so it counts more of the sales in Meadowlakes and Highland Haven than the town does, and Thunder Rock leads both. Builders hold a smaller share of the ZIP code’s homes for sale than of the town’s, and who they are is on Which price ranges in Marble Falls have no builder homes competing with yours?

Are Marble Falls prices lower than a year ago?

Table 3 gives each period its own row: the last three months, the same three months last year, the past twelve months and the twelve months before. Read across a row for one period and down a column for one measure.

Table 3. Marble Falls sales in each period. Each row stands on its own. Source: Unlock MLS.

PeriodSoldMedian sale priceMedian days on marketShare of original asking pricePrice per square foot
90 days ending October 15, 202647$344,90065 days93.9%$180
Same 90 days, 2025 (July 18, 2025 to October 15, 2025)56$419,50059 days91.6%$237
Twelve months ending October 15, 2026201$340,00077 days91.1%$171
Prior twelve months (October 16, 2024 to October 15, 2025)200$369,99575 days92.1%$199

What the changes mean for a price is on What is your Marble Falls home worth next to new builds that sell for less? and the twelve-month change claims are on Why is the Marble Falls housing market slower to reach a contract than the Austin metro’s?

How does Marble Falls stack up against Spicewood, Johnson City and Lago Vista?

Marble Falls has the lowest typical sale price of the four and the quickest median time to a contract, as Table 4 shows.

Table 4. Nearby towns, 90 days ending October 15, 2026. Source: Unlock MLS.

TownSoldMedian sale priceMedian days on marketShare of original asking priceFor saleMonths of supplyMarket
Marble Falls47$344,90065 days93.9%1268.0buyer’s market
Spicewood73$635,000104 days90.2%2249.2buyer’s market
Johnson City9$492,00083 days91.7%4113.7buyer’s market
Lago Vista61$405,00075 days94.4%21310.5balanced

Lago Vista reads balanced because homes there sold for 94.4% of original asking, even though it carries more months of inventory than Marble Falls. What buyers paid against original asking sets the reading, and supply supports it. Spicewood and Johnson City read as buyer’s markets, each reading is for that town overall and a price point changes which market a home is in, and Johnson City had few sales in the period.

Which market is my price range in?

Table 5 answers that for the one range with enough sales to read over the last three months, $300,000 to $349,999.

Table 5. Marble Falls homes by price range. Sales are from the 90 days ending October 15, 2026; homes for sale are as of October 16, 2026. A range is a seller’s market when homes sell for at least 97% of their original asking price, balanced from 94% to 97%, and a buyer’s market below 94%. Each reading is for that price range only; a different price point changes which market a home is in. Only price ranges with at least 10 sales in the last 90 days are shown. Source: Unlock MLS.

Price rangeSoldMedian sale priceFor saleNew builds for saleHomes that cut their priceMonths of supplyMarket
$300,000 to $349,99917$300,000191363.4balanced

Homes there sold for 94.1% of original asking, which reads balanced for that range and a step better than the town overall. On the twelve-month basis the same range reads as a buyer’s market, like the town.

Every other range had too few recent sales for a three-month reading, so I read those on twelve months. On twelve months the $250,000 to $299,999 range, with 27 sales, reads as a buyer’s market for that range.

The $350,000 to $399,999 range, also with 27 sales, reads the same way on twelve months.

The $800,000 to $899,999 range is the one higher range that reads balanced, with 7 sales.

How to choose between listing now and waiting, range by range, is on Should you sell your Marble Falls home now, or wait for a faster market? The tables are rebuilt from a fresh MLS pull each time the pages are refreshed, and the last-updated line above them gives the pull date.

Do these numbers describe your home?

They describe the town and its ZIP code, and your home is one sale inside them. Run your address to see which part of Marble Falls a buyer would compare you with.

Your situation

These numbers show how Marble Falls and 78654 are doing as a whole. They cannot show which listing a buyer tours right after yours, whether you sit in Thunder Rock or Meadowlakes, or where your price lands next to it.

Start with the row closest to your house, then ask which homes sit beside it on a buyer’s list.

Before You Put Your Home on the Market, See the Homes You’ll Have to Beat

If you are not sure which of these rows is yours, start with the homes a buyer would weigh against your house. Request my complimentary Home Competitor Analysis for your address. You get:

Step 1 of 4

No obligation. The report for your part of Marble Falls arrives within a minute; the pricing analysis comes after we walk the home. Nothing here promises a price, a timeline, or an outcome. 26 homes sold by Watters International Realty in Marble Falls (Unlock MLS, all time).

Why do I watch months of supply?

Chris’s position, WIR positions library, approved September 9, 2026.

Months of supply is the number I watch. It means: if no more homes came on the market, how long would it take to sell everything listed at the pace homes are selling now. Seven-plus months sounds bad and for the average listing it is. The right company sells a lot faster than the average listing.

In Marble Falls that figure is 8.0 months and in the ZIP code it is 8.9, against 6.0 for the Austin metro. Supply is the supporting number, and what buyers paid against original asking sets the reading.

About Watters International Realty in Marble Falls

Watters International Realty is a Texas real estate brokerage, and I am its broker of record. This page is based on Unlock MLS data analyzed on October 16, 2026. 26 homes sold by Watters International Realty in Marble Falls (Unlock MLS, all time).

See the homes you’d be competing against

You get the competing listings near you, how your part of Marble Falls compares with the town, and a walkthrough before any pricing talk.

Contact me for off-market private luxury listings you will never see online.

Step 1 of 4

No obligation. The report arrives within a minute; the pricing analysis comes after we walk the home. Nothing here promises a price, a timeline, or an outcome.

More for Marble Falls sellers

Chris Watters, Broker, Watters International Realty. Texas Real Estate Commission license #567369. Broker of record for a Texas brokerage serving the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Killeen-Temple-Waco metros.