Can a Manchaca resale compete with new builds in 78652?
Quick answer
It can, if it is priced against the builder homes a buyer tours the same day. Every one of the 14 homes that sold in 78652 over the last 90 days was a new build, and they closed at 93.2% of original asking, a buyer’s market for the ZIP overall.
What we analyzed
- 14 homes sold in ZIP 78652 (Austin city addresses) in the 90 days ending October 20, 2026
- 9 homes for sale in ZIP 78652 as of October 21, 2026, 7 of them builder listings
- 1.9 months of inventory in ZIP 78652, against 5.9 in the Austin metro
- ZIP 78652 closings for the same 90 days a year earlier and for the twelve months ending October 20, 2026
- Builder and resale listings in 78652 as of October 21, 2026
Sources: Unlock MLS, pulled October 21, 2026.
89 Southwest Austin homeowners have trusted my real estate team to sell their home, and that count doesn’t include a single buyer we’ve represented. Everything on this page comes from the same MLS record we used to price those homes.
What these numbers mean if you are selling is on the Southwest Austin, TX market report.
Last updated October 21, 2026. Sales data covers the 90 days ending October 20, 2026 and the twelve months ending the same day (Unlock MLS via MLS Grid); listing inventory as of October 21, 2026.
How does 78652 compare with Southwest Austin and the metro?
It is a builder’s ZIP right now. Manchaca’s recent sales all came out of Estancia West, and they took a median 51 days to reach a contract.
Table 1. ZIP code 78652 compared with Southwest Austin and the Austin metro. Sales are from the 90 days ending October 20, 2026; homes for sale are as of October 21, 2026. The ZIP column covers 78652 homes recorded with an Austin city address. “Failed to sell” means the listing expired or was withdrawn without selling. Source: Unlock MLS.
| Measure | ZIP 78652 | Southwest Austin | Austin metro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes sold | 14 | 245 | 8,188 |
| Median sale price | $410,000 | $660,000 | $404,000 |
| Median days on market | 51 days | 26 days | 56 days |
| What homes sold for relative to their initial asking price | 93.2% | 96.4% | 94.3% |
| Price per square foot (median) | $181 | $275 | $204 |
| Homes for sale | 9 | 280 | 16,078 |
| Months of supply | 1.9 | 3.4 | 5.9 |
| Buyer’s or seller’s market | buyer’s market | balanced | balanced |
| Listings that failed to sell | 0 | 98 | 5,445 |
| Share of listings that failed to sell | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.9% |
| Active under contract | 1 | 47 | 1,422 |
| Pending | 7 | 39 | 2,064 |
| New listings in the last 90 days | 13 | 318 | 12,120 |
| Homes for sale priced below their original asking price | 8 (88.9%) | 171 (61.1%) | 59.1% |
| New builds for sale (builder listings) | 7 of 9 (77.8%) | 38 of 280 (13.6%) | n/a |
Seven of the nine listings are M/I Homes, which is why 78652 behaves so differently from Circle C or Village at Western Oaks. The builder detail is on Which homes will a buyer tour before yours in Southwest Austin?
Whether a Manchaca owner should list now is on Should you sell your Southwest Austin home now, or wait?
Why listings stall is on Why do some Southwest Austin listings never find a buyer?
Worth against a new build is on What is your Southwest Austin home worth to this year’s buyers?
Are Manchaca prices lower than last year?
Yes, on the record. The typical sale fell to $415,000 this past year from $517,232 the year before.
Price per square foot fell as well, to $181 from $218, while closings nearly doubled. More buyers are coming out of the woodwork in Manchaca, and prices are still going down by the foot, mostly because builder homes at lower prices now make up most of the sales.
Table 2. 78652 sales in each period. Each row stands on its own. Source: Unlock MLS.
| Period | Sold | Median sale price | Median days on market | Share of original asking price | Price per square foot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 days ending October 20, 2026 | 14 | $410,000 | 51 days | 93.2% | $181 |
| Same 90 days, 2025 (July 23, 2025 to October 20, 2025) | 7 | $519,464 | 170 days | 90.2% | $213 |
| Twelve months ending October 20, 2026 | 37 | $415,000 | 69 days | 90.6% | $181 |
| Prior twelve months (October 21, 2024 to October 20, 2025) | 20 | $517,232 | 101 days | 92.3% | $218 |
Which market is my 78652 price range in?
The ZIP is too small for a range-by-range read over three months.
No single price range in 78652 closed ten or more homes in the last 90 days, so the price-range table is left out; the ZIP-wide figures above are the reliable read.
For a resale owner, the useful comparison is the M/I Homes price sheet in Estancia West, where asking prices run from $369,990 to $424,990.
How does 78652 compare with the other Southwest Austin ZIP codes?
Lowest prices, lowest supply, and the only ZIP where new builds outsell resales.
Table 4. The other Southwest Austin ZIP codes, 90 days ending October 20, 2026. Source: Unlock MLS.
| ZIP | Sold | Median sale price | Median days on market | Share of original asking price | For sale | Months of supply | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZIP 78652 | 14 | $410,000 | 51 days | 93.2% | 9 | 1.9 | buyer’s market |
| ZIP 78736 | 27 | $545,000 | 39 days | 94.6% | 42 | 4.7 | balanced |
| ZIP 78737 | 70 | $811,500 | 42 days | 95.1% | 88 | 3.8 | balanced |
| ZIP 78739 | 58 | $822,500 | 13 days | 98.0% | 42 | 2.2 | seller’s market |
| ZIP 78749 | 76 | $560,000 | 18 days | 97.4% | 99 | 3.9 | seller’s market |
Estancia West has its own page, Can an Estancia West owner sell against M/I Homes’ new builds? and the area view is What does the Southwest Austin market look like for sellers now?
Which neighborhoods in 78652 have their own market report?
Table 5. Neighborhoods in ZIP code 78652 with their own page, by sales in the twelve months ending October 20, 2026. Source: Unlock MLS.
| Neighborhood | Sold, twelve months | Median sale price | Market report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estancia West | 31 | $412,990 | Estancia West market report |
Does the 78652 scoreboard describe your Manchaca home?
Only partly, unless you own in Estancia West. Start with your address.
- Closely, for an Estancia West owner pricing against the builder.
- Loosely, for an older Manchaca house on a larger lot, which few recent sales describe.
- Loosely, for a home a buyer would compare with 78749 or 78739 instead.
- Closely, for a ready house priced on this year’s closed sales, not last year’s.
Your situation
Manchaca’s record right now is a builder’s record: more sales, lower prices, and almost every listing cut once. A resale here is measured against a new house with a warranty.
So for your house the question is what it offers that the builder does not, the lot, the trees, the established yard, and what a buyer will pay for that.
Before You Put Your Home on the Market, See the Homes You’ll Have to Beat
If you own an established home in Manchaca and want to know how it stands against the builder, start with the listings a buyer would compare it with. Request my complimentary Home Competitor Analysis for your address. You get:
- The homes for sale near you that a buyer would likely tour alongside yours
- How your home compares with the new builds and resales in 78652
- How the walkthrough works and what we look at in your home
No obligation. The report for your part of Southwest Austin arrives within a minute; the pricing analysis comes after we walk the home. Nothing here promises a price, a timeline, or an outcome. 89 homes sold by Watters International Realty in Southwest Austin (Unlock MLS, all time).
Why doesn’t low supply help Manchaca sellers more?
Chris’s position, approved September 9, 2026.
Months of supply is the number I watch. It means: if no more homes came on the market, how long would it take to sell everything listed at the pace homes are selling now. The right company sells a lot faster than the average listing.
In 78652 it is 1.9 months, yet the ZIP is a buyer’s market on sale price against original asking, because the builder cuts to keep homes moving.
About Watters International Realty in Southwest Austin
Watters International Realty is a Texas real estate brokerage, and I am its broker of record. This page is based on Unlock MLS data analyzed on October 21, 2026. 89 homes sold by Watters International Realty in Southwest Austin (Unlock MLS, all time).
See the homes you’d be competing against
You get the competing listings near you, how they compare with the builder’s homes, and a walkthrough before any pricing talk.
No obligation. The report arrives within a minute; the pricing analysis comes after we walk the home. Nothing here promises a price, a timeline, or an outcome.
More for Southwest Austin sellers
- What does the Southwest Austin market look like for sellers now?
- Is 78736 a buyer’s market or a seller’s market this fall?
- How is 78737 treating sellers in Belterra and Highpointe?
- What are buyers paying in 78739 for Circle C and Meridian homes?
- How fast are 78749 homes selling around Maple Run and Westcreek?
- Should you sell your Southwest Austin home now, or wait?
- Which homes will a buyer tour before yours in Southwest Austin?
- Why do some Southwest Austin listings never find a buyer?
- What is your Southwest Austin home worth to this year’s buyers?
- The Austin seller hub
