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Is Trinity Ranch in Elgin really a balanced market with so many homes listed?

Quick answer

In the three months ending October 15, 2026, Trinity Ranch homes in Elgin closed at 94.9% of original asking, which is balanced for Trinity Ranch as a whole, though supply runs long at 10.2 months. In my read, that supply and the price cuts among the homes for sale mean a seller should plan to price against cut listings, and a price point changes which market a home is in.

What we analyzed

Sources: Unlock MLS, pulled October 16, 2026.

107 Elgin homeowners have trusted my real estate team to sell their home, and that count doesn’t include a single buyer we’ve represented. Everything on this page comes from the same MLS record we used to price those homes.

Already have a rough idea of your price range? Skip down to see whether these numbers fit your home, or plug in your address for a closer look.

Every number on this page covers Trinity Ranch only. What the Elgin market as a whole means for a seller is on Selling in Elgin, TX? How the town's new builds could shape your price.

Last updated October 16, 2026. Sales data covers the 90 days ending October 15, 2026 and the twelve months ending the same day (Unlock MLS via MLS Grid); listing inventory as of October 16, 2026.

Is Trinity Ranch balanced on what homes actually closed for?

Trinity Ranch homes closed at 94.9% of their original asking price over the latest three months, which is balanced for Trinity Ranch as a whole, and with enough closings in the quarter to give that reading. Over the twelve months the share was 93.9%, a buyer’s market, so the two spans sit on either side of the 94% line.

Elgin overall closed at 93.2% in the latest three months. Only 30.8% of Trinity Ranch’s closings came at or above original asking, so the balanced reading here is a close call. In my read, a reading from a few closings is a thin floor, since a handful of sales either side of the line can move 94.9% across 94%. A price point changes which market a home is in, and a price point changes which market a home is in.

Some of the supply is moving: 9 homes for sale are active under contract and 6 more are pending.

Table 1. Trinity Ranch beside Elgin as a whole, 90 days and twelve months ending October 15, 2026. Source: Unlock MLS.

MeasureTrinity Ranch, 90 daysElgin, 90 daysTrinity Ranch, twelve monthsElgin, twelve months
Homes sold13138122608
Median sale price$299,990$281,749$299,990$287,994
Median days on market75 days74 days114 days79 days
Share of original asking price94.9%93.2%93.9%93.7%
Price per square foot (median)$163$157$173$165
What a square foot sold for in Trinity Ranch Median price per square foot of homes that sold, periods ending October 15, 2026. Elgin shown for comparison. Trinity Ranch, 90 days $163 Trinity Ranch, twelve months $173 Trinity Ranch, prior twelve months $184 Elgin, twelve months $165 Source: Unlock MLS, pulled October 16, 2026.
Figure 1. Median price per square foot of homes that sold: Trinity Ranch, 90 days $163; Trinity Ranch, twelve months $173; Trinity Ranch, prior twelve months $184; Elgin, twelve months $165. Periods end October 15, 2026; the prior twelve months end one year earlier. Source: Unlock MLS, pulled October 16, 2026.

How deep is Trinity Ranch’s supply, and how many listings have cut?

Months of inventory measures how many months of closings the current listings add up to. It is 10.2 in Trinity Ranch against 6.0 for the Austin metro. It supports the reading, and when it disagrees with the closing prices I go with the prices.

Cuts are widespread. Of the homes for sale in Trinity Ranch, 86.4% sit below their original asking price. Century Communities and Trophy Signature Homes list 20 homes each, and all 4 resale listings have cut as well.

Builder asking runs from $249,990 to $349,990 across the two names, and the table below shows each name’s own range.

Table 2. Builder listings in Trinity Ranch by builder name on the MLS record, as of October 16, 2026; 40 builder listings of 44 homes for sale. Source: Unlock MLS.

BuilderListingsAsking rangeMedian asking
Century Communities20$249,990 to $342,785$304,238
Trophy Signature Homes20$259,990 to $349,990$318,990

Every one of the 13 homes that sold in the latest three months was built in 2025 or later, so no resale median exists for the quarter. Other builders near your price in Elgin are on Which builders are listing homes at your price in Elgin, and where?

Where do Trinity Ranch prices stand against a year ago?

Over the past twelve months Trinity Ranch buyers paid $173 per square foot where the twelve months before had $184, and the median sale price was $299,990 against $314,950.

The latest three months read the same way, at $163 per square foot against $185 in the same three months last year, and a median of $299,990 against $309,900.

Table 3. Trinity Ranch sales in each period. Each row stands on its own. Source: Unlock MLS.

PeriodSoldMedian sale priceMedian days on marketShare of original asking pricePrice per square foot
90 days ending October 15, 202613$299,99075 days94.9%$163
Same 90 days, 2025 (July 18, 2025 to October 15, 2025)29$309,900116 days96.1%$185
Twelve months ending October 15, 2026122$299,990114 days93.9%$173
Prior twelve months (October 16, 2024 to October 15, 2025)142$314,950121 days96.0%$184

Closings fell over both spans: 122 against 142 over the twelve months, and 13 against 29 in the quarter. The price record therefore rests on fewer sales than before. What to check when a listing is slow to sell is on Is your Elgin listing stuck? What to check before you blame a slow market.

Which Trinity Ranch price ranges read as balanced?

Twelve months of sales carry the range readings here, because none reached 10 closings in the quarter.

The MLS also records some homes as Trinity Ranch Ph 1 Sec 2 and Trinity Ranch Ph 1, Sec, and the figures fold them in with the rest. Most of the subdivision’s twelve-month sales sit in that one range, so the subdivision reading and that range’s reading are largely the same story. The town picture for the same ranges is on Selling in Elgin, TX? How the town’s new builds could shape your price.

Does the Trinity Ranch reading describe your home?

Trinity Ranch is crowded with listings that have cut. Run your address to see how many sit near your price.

Your situation

A Trinity Ranch buyer is choosing among listings from Century Communities, Trophy Signature Homes and a few resales, and most of them have already cut. For your house: if the number you would open with sits above those cut prices, what would make a buyer choose yours? Both builders list across a wide span of asking prices, so at least one of them is likely to sit near your number.

Before You Put Your Home on the Market, See the Homes You’ll Have to Beat

If you want to know how much of Trinity Ranch’s supply competes with your price, start by seeing which listings a buyer would weigh against yours. Request my complimentary Home Competitor Analysis for your address. You get:

Step 1 of 4

No obligation. The report for Trinity Ranch arrives within a minute; the pricing analysis comes after we walk the home. Nothing here promises a price, a timeline, or an outcome. 107 homes sold by Watters International Realty in Elgin (Unlock MLS, all time).

About Watters International Realty in Elgin

Watters International Realty is a Texas real estate brokerage, and I am its broker of record. This page is based on Unlock MLS data analyzed on October 16, 2026. 107 homes sold by Watters International Realty in Elgin (Unlock MLS, all time).

See the homes you’d be competing against

You get the listings that compete with yours, what recent Trinity Ranch sales show, and a walkthrough before any pricing talk.

Step 1 of 4

No obligation. The report arrives within a minute; the pricing analysis comes after we walk the home. Nothing here promises a price, a timeline, or an outcome.

More for Elgin sellers

Chris Watters, Broker, Watters International Realty. Texas Real Estate Commission license #567369. Broker of record for a Texas brokerage serving the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Killeen-Temple-Waco metros.