Here’s the plain answer: Texas isn’t crashing, and it isn’t booming. Prices are easing a little, buyers have more homes to pick from, and what’s happening in your own metro matters more than the statewide average. The headlines this summer can’t agree on much. One says the market is slowing, the next says prices are climbing, someone on TV is still calling for a crash, and your neighbor just sold in a week.
So what’s actually going on here in Texas?
We went through the latest data from the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M. The figures below are the most recent monthly numbers, mostly from April. The short version is that the statewide number hides three very different markets, and which one you’re in changes how you should plan your next move.
Prices are drifting down, slowly. Across Texas, home prices were down 0.9 percent from last year. April’s median sale price was $335,000, a bit below the $337,500 of April last year. Statewide prices have now been below year-ago levels for 11 months in a row. A sub-1% dip is not a correction, and it’s nowhere near a crash. It does mark the end of the runaway price growth that priced so many people out during the pandemic years. Buyers get some breathing room. Sellers still have a market, but it pays to be realistic about price.
Rates are better than a year ago. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the most common home loan, with the rate locked for all 30 years, has been running in the low-6% range. Recent DFW-area reporting put it at 6.11%, down about 68 basis points from a year earlier. That isn’t cheap money, but it’s easier on buyers than last summer, and every fraction of a point changes what a monthly payment will cover. Most analysts don’t expect a return to 3% anytime soon. Still, rates moving down has been one of the better developments of 2026.
There are more homes for sale, and the reason matters. Inventory has grown a lot across Texas. Listings are on track to hit new highs for this cycle, and statewide inventory is well above pre-pandemic levels. The reason is what counts. From the data, it looks like the growth is coming mostly from homes taking longer to sell, not from a wave of new sellers. So homes are piling up. The ones priced and prepared well still sell, and the overpriced ones sit. Getting the price right matters a great deal right now.
The statewide numbers only tell you so much. Here’s what’s happening in the three big metros.
Austin has corrected the most. Austin has taken the sharpest adjustment of the major Texas metros. The April year-over-year price decline widened to 3.3 percent, up from 2.7 percent in February and March. Austin’s May 2022 peak was $550,000. The metro median is near $440,000 now, about 20% below that peak, with about 5.5 months of supply. Sellers are adjusting: the median price reduction in Austin in April was $19,000, about 5.4 percent of the original list price. If you were priced out of Austin two years ago, you have more room to negotiate than you’ve had in a long time. If you’re selling in Austin, the number in your head from 2022 is not today’s number.
DFW is in the middle, and it’s really two markets. Dallas-Fort Worth is holding up better than Austin. Dallas prices were down 1.3 percent year over year. Resale homes are at 6.09 months of supply, the upper edge of balanced. Sellers there are still getting 95.0% of their original list price, at an average of 56 days on market. New construction is tighter, at a 4.17-month supply. Fort Worth-Arlington is showing early signs of recovery, with the year-over-year decline narrowing to 0.4 percent from 1.1 percent in March. Median price reductions in DFW ran $12,500, about 3 percent of the original list price, the smallest of the major metros. DFW sellers are giving up less ground than Austin sellers, and Fort Worth may already be turning the corner.
San Antonio is softening while inventory builds. San Antonio prices were down 1.9 percent year over year, a steeper drop than Dallas saw. Median price reductions were $15,000, about 4.6 percent of the original list price. Active inventory rose year over year across the major metros, and San Antonio led the increase. More homes and softer prices are good news for buyers. If you’re selling in San Antonio, you’re up against more listings than a year ago, and homes priced right from the first day are the ones that sell.
The wider economy is confusing. Texas housing has been steadier. Consumer confidence is low, energy prices have been climbing, and conflicts overseas add uncertainty. Meanwhile the stock market keeps hitting new highs. Mixed signals like that make people hesitant. Through all of it, Texas housing hasn’t done anything dramatic. Homes are still selling, and prices are easing a little instead of falling off a cliff. Texas still has population growth and a large job base behind housing demand, though how strong that demand is varies by city and price range. Sold homes spent an average of 70 days on the market in April, down from 79 days in March. The market is working, just at a slower pace than the frenzy everyone remembers.
Look at the metros side by side: Austin down 3.3%, DFW down 1.3% with Fort Worth starting to recover, San Antonio down 1.9% with inventory climbing. Each is in a different spot, and the statewide average doesn’t describe any of them well.
Your neighborhood, your price range, and your specific situation can look very different again from even those metro-level headlines.
If you want to see the numbers for your neighborhood and price range, we’ll go through them with you so your decisions rest on what’s happening where you live. Call or text us at 888-333-4838, or visit christopherwatters.com. We’ll pull the numbers for your neighborhood with you before you decide what to do next.
